نموذج قياسي للعوامل المؤثرة على التضخم في السودان باستخدام السببية خلال الفترة )1990-2015م(

Abstract

This study aims to Examine the long-term Relationship between (Gross Domestic Product) GDP, unemployment rate, Exchange Rate and Inflation. At This study used the method of co-integration, Error Correction Model(ECM) and Granger causality test to estimate the relationship between variables. The results show that there is a correlation between the variables. The variables are also integrated in the firstly stage. The results also showed a one-way causality relationship between the GDP and inflation, between the exchange rate and inflation, and between inflation and unemployment. The study findings out that increase exchange rate with 1% that leads to a decrease in inflation rates by 0.012, and the most important recommendations to organize economical program to stabilize economical stability taking into account the factors affecting inflation.